Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

Hazard Assessment of Co-seismic Landslides Based on Information Value Method: A Case in 2018 MW6.6 Hokkaido Earthquake, Japan     

WEN Boyu  XU Chong  HE Xiangli  MA Siyuan  SHAO Xiaoyi  LI Kai  ZHANG Zhongjian  LI Zhengfang 《中国地震研究》2020,34(1):64-80

An M_W6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido, Japan on September 6^th, 2018. Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution (3 m) planet satellite, we manually interpret 9 293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide, such as elevation, slope, slope direction, road distance, flow distance, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and lithology. Then, 9 293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3. In detail, the training sample has 6 505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2 788 landslide points. The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades, including very low risk area, low risk area, moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area. The results show that there are 7 576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area, accounting for 81.52% of the total landslide number, and the landslide area is 22.93 km², accounting for 74.35% of the total area. The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation. The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number. The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50% and the prediction rate is 78.43%. The evaluation results are satisfactory, indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.  相似文献   

龙泉山断裂带断层最新活动年代及方式     

刘亮  梁斌  燕中林  苏画  何学锋 《中国地质调查》2020,7(5):77-87

龙泉山断裂带属龙门山前陆隆起,与青藏高原龙门山的隆升演化密切相关。为探讨龙泉山断裂带断层活动方式、期次及年代特征,在该断裂带不同部位采集了断层泥样品,通过扫描电镜(SEM)对样品中的石英颗粒进行了痕迹微形貌和溶蚀微形貌观察,通过电子自旋共振(ESR)测试了样品断层的最新活动年龄,并结合区域地震资料,进一步研究了龙泉山断裂带断层的发震潜力。结果表明: 龙泉山断裂带断层运动方式以黏滑为主,兼蠕滑; 具有多期次活动特征,强烈活动时间为早更新世—中更新世,晚更新世也有明显断层活动,全新世断层活动不明显; SEM 、ESR、热释光(TL)测得的断层最新活动年龄为(1 210±121)~(110±10.0) ka; 最新活动年代和活动性具有分段性,中段断层活动性较弱,北段和南段断层活动性较强。总之,龙泉山断裂带为1条活动性断裂带,具有一定的发震潜力,地震沿断裂带呈带状分布,但相比其西侧的龙门山断裂带,其活动性已大大降低。  相似文献   

Main active faults and seismic activity along the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Based on remote sensing geological survey     

《China Geology》2020,3(2):314-338

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) spans three terrain steps in China and features diverse topography that is characterized by significant differences in geological structure and present-day crustal deformation. Active faults and seismic activity are important geological factors for the planning and development of the YREB. In this paper, the spatial distribution and activity of 165 active faults that exist along the YREB have been compiled from previous findings, using both remote-sensing data and geological survey results. The crustal stability of seven particularly noteworthy typical active fault zones and their potential effects on the crustal stability of the urban agglomerations are analyzed. The main active fault zones in the western YREB, together with the neighboring regional active faults, make up an arc fault block region comprising primarily of Sichuan-Yunnan and a “Sichuan-Yunnan arc rotational-shear active tectonic system” strong deformation region that features rotation, shear and extensional deformation. The active faults in the central-eastern YREB, with seven NE-NNE and seven NW-NWW active faults (the “7-longitudinal, 7-horizontal” pattern), macroscopically make up a “chessboard tectonic system” medium-weak deformation region in the geomechanical tectonic system. They are also the main geological constraints for the crustal stability of the YREB.  相似文献   

广西合浦盆地干热岩资源成热条件及潜力评价     

康志强  张起钻  管彦武  冯波  袁金福  孙明行  刘德民  王新宇  杨志强  陆济璞  张勤军  冯民豪 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(4):1151-1160

为了对广西合浦盆地干热岩资源成热条件及其潜力进行评价，利用广西航磁勘查数据，采用Parker-Oldenburg法反演计算了居里面深度。在此基础上进行大地热流密度值和不同埋深地温计算，发现计算结果与现有测温资料吻合，合浦盆地内西场凹陷和常乐凹陷具有干热岩资源成生条件。结合合浦盆地内基础地质调查资料和油气钻孔资料，分析了合浦盆地干热岩资源的储层和盖层条件。初步圈出2个位于西场凹陷和常乐凹陷的干热岩勘查靶区C1和C2，面积分别为167.10和72.90 km²，干热岩资源量分别为182.48×10¹⁵、77.59×10¹⁵ J。按20%的采收率，合浦盆地干热岩资源量可开采量为52.01×10¹⁵ J，折合标准煤177.48×10⁴ t，占2018年广西全区能源生产总量3 756.69×10⁴ t标准煤的4.72%。在资源量评价基础上，可优先考虑位于合浦盆地西场凹陷的C1靶区开展进一步的勘探工作。  相似文献   

格尔木河水质现状及生态风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

李雷明  武君  徐娟  温小虎  闵秀云  郭效瑛  柴小丽  李廷伟 《盐湖研究》2019,27(1):89-98

为了解经济迅速发展背景下格尔木河流域水体中痕量元素分布、水环境质量现状和生态风险,对格尔木河9个采样点水样21种痕量元素的分布及相关性进行了分析,以Cu、Zn、Hg、Cd、Cr和Pb为目标重金属,评估了格尔木河水质现状及生态风险。结果表明:重金属Pb浓度在所有水样中均低于检出限,其它痕量元素浓度在0.001(Cd)～6297.013(Sr)μg·L~(-1)范围变化。根据相关性分析,推测格尔木河水体中Li、Sc、Ti、V、Cu、Ge、Rb、Sr、Mo、Cd来源可能相同。采样点水样6种重金属浓度均达到地表水环境质量I类的标准。采用5种方法评价了格尔木河水质现状,研究区水质处于无污染的理想状态。格尔木河重金属引发的潜在生态风险处于低风险水平(生态风险指数变化范围为0.35～0.68)。  相似文献   

应变率效应对600 MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震性能影响研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙传智  李爱群  缪长青  乔燕  左工 《世界地震工程》2019,35(2):165-170

为了更真实地进行钢筋混凝土结构抗震性能评估，应该考虑材料的应变率效应影响。600 MPa级高强钢筋作为新一代建筑钢材，尚无考虑应变率效应影响的600 MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震性能研究。首先进行了不同应变率下600 MPa级高强钢筋拉伸力学性能试验，利用试验数据拟合得到600 MPa级高强钢筋在不同应变率下的强度提高系数表达式，并利用OpenSees软件进行了配置600 MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震性能模拟分析，研究了应变率效应对框架结构抗震性能的影响。研究结果表明:随着应变率的增大，钢筋的屈服强度和极限强度均得到提高，屈服强度最大提高11.5%，极限强度最大提高8.9%；随着所考虑的材料应变率增加，配置600 MPa级高强钢筋框架结构最大顶点位移总体上呈减小趋势，地震波强度越强，应变率效应影响越大，而层间位移角减小幅值相差不大。研究成果可作为600MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震评估的依据。  相似文献   

基于直觉模糊层次分析法的地震压埋率模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

肖东升  钟祖峰  罗尚  练洪  罗俊 《世界地震工程》2019,35(3):127-135

强烈地震会导致建筑物倒塌进而造成室内人员压埋，因此，把特定区域和建筑群的压埋率作为震后救援的决策指标尤为重要。但地震建筑物倒塌受多个影响因素共同作用，造成了压埋率模型的后验倒塌率评估的不确定性问题。针对这个问题采用直觉模糊层次分析法，选取了震级、震源深度、震中距、抗震设防烈度、地基和基础、建筑物结构类型和结构现状等七大影响因素进行加权分析。运用LINGO软件建模解算出了各影响因素权重，通过极大似然法估算了各影响因素对建筑物倒塌率的影响值，进而评估出了建筑物预估倒塌率，并结合先验在室率模型及其区划，建立了基于直觉模糊层次分析法的地震压埋率模型。最后以汶川灾区学校为例，进行了压埋率评估，并对其进行了误差分析。研究表明:抗震设防烈度、建筑物结构类型和结构现状是影响建筑物倒塌的主要因素；在实际评估中模型精度达到±0.15，能为震后快速应急救援提供决策辅助。  相似文献   

基于空间分析技术的海岛地震灾害风险分析研究          下载免费PDF全文

郑秋红  贾婧  高惠瑛  杨树桐  李蓓 《世界地震工程》2019,35(3):168-176

我国约有1.1万个海岛，多处于地震活跃带，地震灾害特征明显，目前地震领域研究主要针对城市展开，海岛地震灾害风险的研究较少。此背景下，该研究收集了海岛地震相关的地质和地震数据，形成海岛地震灾害空间数据库；从地震危险性、承灾体易损性和防震减灾能力3个方面构建海岛地震灾害风险评价指标体系；利用ArcGIS空间分析技术，采用熵权法与AHP法相结合建立海岛地震灾害风险综合评价模型，以长岛县、洞头区和东山县为例进行分析，并将海岛地震灾害风险等级划分为4个等级。结果显示:东山县为地震灾害高风险区，洞头区和长岛县为地震灾害较低风险区。该研究对海岛工程抗震规划与设计有重要意义。  相似文献   

新疆和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价          下载免费PDF全文

田丰收  刘新平  原伟鹏 《干旱区地理》2019,42(2):295-304

随着化肥、农膜等在农业生产中的过量投入，耕地面源污染的程度随之加重。文章选取塔里木河流域上游和田地区为研究区域，依据P-S-R框架理论，构建和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价指标体系，加入土壤理化数据，使用生态风险评价模型对和田地区1980 年及2016 年耕地面源污染状况进行生态风险评价，运用耕地生态风险模型、生态风险转移矩阵、Arcgis分析和田地区耕地面源污染时空分异状况。研究结论如下：和田地区1980 年耕地生态风险等级均为II级或III级，呈“中间高，两侧低”分布；2016 年耕地生态风险等级上升至IV级或V级，呈“倒W型”分布，各县耕地面源污染程度较1980 年均有较大幅度的上升，其中墨玉县和于田县在2016 年耕地生态风险等级达到最高的V级，而民丰县因自身生态环境的强脆弱性，同样需要提高关注。根据面源污染“从源头治理”的原则，应切实推进和田地区耕地生态环境保护与治理，提高政府重视程度，增强技术指导，开展试点工作，改善和田地区耕地面源污染现状。  相似文献